Constant improvement is a mantra here at ShopLocal. To that end, the team knew there was room for improvement in our popularity ranking algorithm that we call “Wisdom of the Crowds” (WoC).
The current system for determining product popularity only counted those products that a shopper specifically clicked on. There are a number of product level clicks that are counted in terms of a shopper expressing interest such as a product detail page, a buy online click or an add to a shopping list click (which are cumulatively called Expressions of Interest). Not any more. The ShopLocal team has begun collecting and counting another key piece of consumer interest data – product rollovers.
By factoring in both product rollover data AND expression of interest data, the overall Wisdom of the Crowds ranking data is all the richer and accurate. This process of collecting and using rollover data for SmartCircular sites is underway and will complete over the next month or so for all clients, SC sites and versions of SmartCircular.
At a macro level, what we have learned so far about rollover data is:
- Rollovers are on average about 5x as common as Expressions Of Interest. This means by adding them to the Wisdom of the Crowds calculation, the overall popularity ranking data should become much more accurate and more truly reflect actual consumer interest.
- Rollover usage varies significantly by retailer. No surprise given all the variation in UI/UX out there within weekly ad sites. Also some sites don’t even use rollovers. Or on other sites, the rollovers are down played. In any case, we are now tracking them all so as to extract the most useful and complete set of consumer interest data as possible.
Illustrated here is a specific product level rollover that has been triggered by a user rolling over a predefined hotspot region that is overlaid on top of the circular page view images. When talking about rollover tracking, what is actual being tracked is the number of times, for a specific product, a rollover is triggered and left open for at least 2 seconds. If it meets that criteria, it would be counted as one (1) rollover for the product.
Here is a quick snapshot of some early returns from a 6 day sample set of data across 20 retailers:
- # of total product level exposures: 1,006,078,269
- # of total product rollovers: 25,620,887
- # of total product specific indicators of interests expressed: 4,532,430
- Overall ratio of interest divided by rollovers: 18%
- Rollover trigger rate (of overall total product exposure) : 2.55%
- Interest trigger rate (of overall total product exposure): 0.45%
- Total CTR (rollovers + interest): 3.00%
UPDATE 1/21: The ShopLocal analyst team just today cranked out a nice little additional stat on this topic that is worth sharing. The correlation of interest/exposure ranks compared to the rollover/exposure ranks, on average overall is 0.6636 Meaning that rollovers are for most sites a good measure of interest. Maybe think of it this way. This correlation helps prove that the items a user rolls over are likely the very ones that they end up taking other subsequent action at a later point in their site visit.
The ShopLocal Retail Index was up 23 percent for the month of November compared to the same period last year. The Index registered at 764 (benchmarked at 100 for January 2006), setting an all-time record.
Retailers generated this strong growth by launching their holiday promotions earlier in November, offering 16% more deals than last year in their online circulars during the first 23 days of November, and accurately predicting consumers’ desire to plan their holiday shopping early. Even though 50% of holiday shoppers plan to spend less this year than last, retailers were able to generate a 0.9% increase in sales on Black Friday and Saturday. As shoppers look more and more to the web for information to guide them in planning their in-store shopping – Google reports a 20% increase in searches for Black Friday and a 50% increase in searches for Black Friday ads – retailers are using the online circulars to reach more shoppers and reach them earlier.
November 2009 ShopLocal Index highlights include:
- The ShopLocal Index is up 23 percent in November year-over-year, with 1,029 million page views (adjusted), versus 863 million last year. This marks the first time that ShopLocal has served more than 1 billion page views in a single month.
- The Other (Specialty) segment led the way with 85 percent growth, followed closely by the Home & Garden segment with 78 percent growth, and by the Consumer Electronics & Office Supplies segment with 60 percent growth.
- The Department Stores and Mass Merchandiser segment showed the least growth, unchanged from a year ago.
- Consumer page views per visit on a per retailer basis averaged 14.4 for the month of November, up 7% from a year ago.
The ShopLocal Index is the advertising industry’s first market indicator designed to track the influence of the Internet on in-store shopping. Updated monthly, the Index is based on the online activity of more than 25 million monthly consumer visits to in-store local promotions that are presented on the sites of more than 50 major U.S. retailers, including JCPenney, Target, Best Buy, Walgreens and Home Depot. These retailers cover all major retail segments including computers, consumer electronics, office supplies, home improvement, department stores, mass merchants, grocery, drug and various specialty stores. The retailers’ online circular sites are powered by ShopLocal’s SmartCircular technology.
Posted on 25 November 2009 by Loch Rose
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November has shown an unusual level of deals compared to the usual relative quiet during the run-up to Black Friday. In fact, retailers have extended an average of 16% more offers during November 1-23:
Consumers are responding, with 23% more visits to the online circulars hosted by ShopLocal:
Page views on the online circular have increased even more, running a remarkable 44% above 2008:
Clearly the retailers are extending the holiday shopping season, and consumers are responding. Historically, visits to the online circular have been a strong predictor of in-store sales, and if that holds true, retailers should see strong sales in the pre-Thanksgiving period.
However, the implications for sales on Black Friday are less clear. Certainly consumers are engaged, which is a good sign for sales on Black Friday and for November as a whole, but they may have taken advantage of the early offers to complete much of their holiday shopping already. The most likely outcome is solid but not exceptional store traffic and sales on Black Friday itself, while retail sales for the month as a whole are stronger than predicted.
The ShopLocal Retail Index was up 37 percent for the month of October compared to the same period last year. The Index registered at 290 (benchmarked at 100 for January 2006), the second highest reading ever for a non-holiday month.
As the run-up to the holidays begins, consumers remain wary, with lower spending plans for 2009 than 2008. They plan to save money via online comparison shopping (70%, compared to 38% last year), and by starting their holiday shopping in October (22%) or even earlier (another 30%). Savvy retailers took advantage of these trends by offering more deals than ever in October – ShopLocal’s data showed a 16% increase in offers per retailer in October 2009 compared to October 2008 – and showcasing them in their online and print circulars.
October 2009 ShopLocal Index highlights include:
- The ShopLocal Index is up 37 percent in October year-over-year, with 382 million page views (adjusted), versus 295 million last year.
- The Other (Specialty) segment led the way with 79 percent growth, followed by the Home & Garden segment with 53 percent growth. The remaining segments all showed 20-30 percent growth.
- Consumer page views per visit on a per retailer basis averaged 13.1 for the month of October, up 5% from a year ago.
The ShopLocal Index is the advertising industry’s first market indicator designed to track the influence of the Internet on in-store shopping. Updated monthly, the Index is based on the online activity of more than 25 million monthly consumer visits to in-store local promotions that are presented on the sites of more than 50 major U.S. retailers, including JCPenney, Target, Best Buy, Walgreens and Home Depot. These retailers cover all major retail segments including computers, consumer electronics, office supplies, home improvement, department stores, mass merchants, grocery, drug and various specialty stores. The retailers’ online circular sites are powered by ShopLocal’s SmartCircular technology.
The ShopLocal Retail Index was up 29 percent for the month of September compared to the same period last year. The Index registered at 242 (benchmarked at 100 for January 2006).
With a background of positive news on inflation and consumer sentiment, consumers are starting to show some willingness to open their purse strings. Retail sales growth in September reflected this, showing a year-over-year increase for the first time in 13 months. But with real income dropping, consumers continue to search for bargains: over 25% of consumers now say that they only buy clothing on sale, up more than 5 points from a year ago. With Internet usage continuing to grow, consumers are increasingly heading to the online circulars to find the sales that they value so highly.
September 2009 ShopLocal Index highlights include:
- The ShopLocal Index is up 29 percent in September year-over-year, with 316 million page views (adjusted), versus 261 million last year.
- The Home & Garden segment led the way with 54 percent growth, followed by the Department Stores and Mass Merchant segment with 45 percent growth. Most other segments showed 20-30 percent growth.
- The Consumer Electronics, Computers and Office Supplies segment showed the least growth, up 11 percent from a year ago.
- Consumer page views per visit on a per retailer basis averaged 12.1 for the month of September, down 1% from a year ago.
The ShopLocal Index is the advertising industry’s first market indicator designed to track the influence of the Internet on in-store shopping. Updated monthly, the Index is based on the online activity of more than 25 million monthly consumer visits to in-store local promotions that are presented on the sites of more than 50 major U.S. retailers, including JCPenney, Target, Best Buy, Walgreens and Home Depot. These retailers cover all major retail segments including computers, consumer electronics, office supplies, home improvement, department stores, mass merchants, grocery, drug and various specialty stores. The retailers’ online circular sites are powered by ShopLocal’s SmartCircular technology.
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