Retail Trends in the Holiday Shopping Season 2008

It’s been a volatile market to say the least. And it shows no signs of settling down. Forecasts for the holiday season range from gloomy to brutal. NPD’s Holiday Survey leads them to predict flat to declining sales for the very first time. In an October of miracle comebacks – the Red Sox making the greatest playoff comeback in Game 5 of the ALCS since October 1929 (that date again!) and the Tampa Bay Rays going from last place and 200-1 pre-season odds to the World Series – it is too early to give up on the holiday spirit or the American consumer. However, it is pragmatic to plan for a challenging season and be better prepared.

How can this page help? The market’s current gyrations are driven by fundamentals, by liquidity and by emotion. Not so different than what drives shopping. With that in mind we plan to use this space over the next several weeks to report on fundamental trends, offer suggestions on optimal allocation of scarce resources and share some rumblings from the gut of marketer and consumer.

What are some of the things we will be talking about?

• Shopper Loyalty: Is Shopper Loyalty to retailers being influenced by the economy?
• Timing of Holiday Shopping: Do consumers plan to buy sooner or later than usual?
• Deal-Driven Shopping: How important are deals going to be in shopping decisions?
• Pre-shopping Internet Research: Are consumers researching more before going to the store?
• Holiday Spending Levels: Do consumers expect to spend more or less than last year?
• Best Practices in Multi-Channel: Opportunities to consider as marketers move towards a unified approach across store, online and catalog channels resulting in a better customer experience and an effective and efficient use of resources for the retailer.

…. and a couple of unique leading indicators:

• The ShopLocal Index is a strong leading indicator since it tracks pre-purchase activity, based on an average of 20 million monthly consumer visits to online circulars presented on the sites of 50 major U.S. retailers. After Y-O-Y growth of 30+% through July the ShopLocal Index has slowed to 23% in August and its first sub-20% reading at 19% in September. The softness has been borne out in the September retail results.

• We will also introduce and track the Pulse of the Consumer a measure of Holiday Purchase Intent.

We look forward to this conversation with our clients, partners, industry colleagues and friends. What are some things you would like to hear and/or talk about?