ShopLocal’s Pulse of the Shopper & Holiday 2008 Retail Spending
Posted on 28 October 2008 by Vikram SharmaNo Comments
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Loading ...Sales of new single-family homes rose 2.7% in September sending the market modestly higher in Monday’s early afternoon trading higher even in the face of a big sell off in Asian markets overnight. It was a welcome bit of good news in what has been a surreal six weeks for the market. However, by day’s end the market had reversed course again.
The NRF forecasts 2.2% growth in Holiday Season sales, well below the ten year average of 4.4%, and the slowest growth since 2002. Shopping will clearly be driven by economic considerations, but will also be influenced by the consumer’s assessment of current events. In this roller-coaster season this could go up or down a few times, and perhaps substantially, in the next 2 months.
Since so much depends on the consumer, and certainly about $470 Billion in holiday retail sales does, we could use a regular read on how the consumer is feeling. ShopLocal’s Pulse of the Shopper, based on surveys of in-market shoppers, is your indicator of the consumer’s predisposition towards shopping this holiday season.
The early read, based on 3,091 respondents between Oct. 18th and Oct. 26th is not pretty, specifically:
- 59% expect to spend less than last year, 4% expect to spend more, and 37% about the same
- 52% expect to buy more on sale than last year, 12% expect to buy less on sale, and 36% about the same
This is a big drop from the 26% spending less in NPD’s Holiday Survey completed before the market dropped sharply in mid-September. It is consistent with the Alix Partners survey last week which had 64% spending less. The downshift lines up very well with the September to October drop in Consumer Confidence reported this morning.
Have we bottomed out? Is this morning’s market a sign of a coming uptick for the consumer? Check back next week for another reading of the Pulse of the Shopper.
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