Let The Holiday Toy Wars (um, I mean sales) Begin

Posted on 31 October 2008 by Patrick Flanagan No Comments

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So the zero-sum race for the consumer (toy) dollars has begun. The first three retailers (specific to the toy market segment) out of the gate this year are…

1. Toys “R” Us – Great example of a well coordinated multi-channel campaign supporting the launch of their Toy Book. It included:

A direct mail campaign with coupons / incentives:

and then a very prominent placement on ToysRUs.com

as well as custom landing page on ToysRUs.com as well

topped of with a great micro-site experience that brought the toy catalog to life

2. Kmart – A much more shallow start so far that does not promote the Toy Store catalog very much. After some digging, I was able to actual find the promotional book

3. Sears – Finally it looks like both halves of Sears Holdings are deploying a similar toy promotion strategy to get into market early but to keep the promotion around these catalogs down to a minimum as a sort of soft launch strategy.  Sears has launched both the Wish Book Toys as well as the more adult orientated Holiday Wish Book

Almost as interesting as whom is live with their toy promotions already is whom is NOT live yet. Absently noteworthy are the number 1 and number 2 players in this space: Wal-Mart and Target.

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ShopLocal hosts the online version of the weekly print ads for many of the top U.S. retailers. These ads are a major merchandising vehicle for these retailers, and they rely on them to bring shoppers into stores. Retailers are practiced and sophisticated in their use of these vehicles, often creating literally hundreds of different geographic versions of them in order to match the buying preferences of their local customers, and in some cases creating Spanish versions as well.

ShopLocal’s database contains a history of these ads, which we can use as an indicator of the level of merchandising activity in retail. It can tell us a lot about how retailers are choosing to connect with their customers. The specific measure we will use is the average number of offers per store; the average will be weighted by retailer ACV (All Commodity Volume, i.e. total dollar sales), which means that retailers with higher sales and more stores will be weighted more strongly in the calculation.

The first chart shows the overall monthly pattern since January 2006. It shows seasonal highs during the holidays and during the spring, followed by seasonal lows in January and July.

The next chart shows the year-over-year trend by month. More up months than down, and it actually picked up in August-September of this year after a slow spring and summer. No sign of a pull-back in merchandising by retailers just yet.

Taking it down to a lower level of detail, by retail segment, shows that the number of offers has grown pretty consistently in the Consumer Electronics, Computers and Office Supplies segment:

Meanwhile, the Department Stores and Mass Merchants segment has been strong since March of this year:

While the Food and Drug segment is shows consistent but relatively slow growth:

And the Home and Garden segment has shown a significant decrease for most of the year, coming back to a nearly flat trend in August and September:

Focusing in on September, the final two charts show that Department Stores and Mass Merchants have both the largest number of listings per store – not unexpected, given the breadth of their product offerings – and also pretty much the strongest growth, which means that this segment was by far the main driver of growth in September. (The “Other” segment includes most specialty retailers, and is significantly smaller in terms of total sales than the others.)

With continuing caution by consumers, did the retailers – particularly the Department Stores and Mass Merchants – get the response they want from the deals they offered in September? They offered consumers a lot in September, and according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimates of retail sales, the consumer did not respond. October’s results, coming up next week, will show how the retailers reacted.

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LIVE Report @ Forrester Consumer Forum 2008
Speaker: Paco Underhill, Author, Why We Buy: The Science Of Shopping, and Founder and CEO, Envirosell

Five (5) Key Issues Facing Today’s Shoppers That Retailer Must Recognize:

1. The visual language is evolving faster than spoken language

Example: With an ever increasing aging population (that is the most affluent customer segment), retailers need to be more cognizant of eyesight issues that come with maturity that result in color, changing light and contrast not being seen the same way as the young 25 year designer that is coming up with visuals. One of the largest physiological drivers of this is the yellowing of the cornea and lens that occurs with age.

2. The retail world is owned, managed and designed by men, BUT women are expected to participate and shop within this non-female friendly environment

Example: The “butt-brush factor“.  Ladies are apt to stop browsing if anything rubs against their rear ends. Envirosell caught this on film in a big department store, as shoppers perused men’s ties in a narrow aisle. When the tie rack was moved to a wider aisle, the extra tie sales paid for Envirosell’s services in a paltry six weeks.

3. Shoppers are increasing more “time poor” than “money poor”

Example: Retailers need to embracing pre-shopping on the internet for larger durable purchases as these type of goods require additional information. Having shoppers come in prepared is in the stores best interest

4. The definitions of ‘Local’ and ‘Global’ are becoming really blurred as well as the ‘Store’ and ‘Online’

Example: Blockbuster, Borders Books and Best Buy have all been pushing in-store connectivity to aid the in-store shopping experience

5. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is being re-ordered all the time

Example: In a recent global behavioral study, a majority of participants first paid their mobile phone bills BEFORE their grocery bills

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GPS Navigation GUI With Web3D Technology

LIVE Report @ Forrester Consumer Forum 2008
Speaker: Paul Jackson, Principal Analyst, Forrester Research

First a little background on the predecessor to Web3D which are virtual worlds. A quick baseline of this technology is needed before exploring Web3D.

How Virtual World Applications Rank Across The Consumer Needs Profile – High In Each Need Type:

  • Connection – Good self expression and creativity
  • Uniqueness – Good engagement and shared experiences
  • Comfort – The 3D metaphor is instantly recognizable
  • Variety – Offers a wide degree of environments and activities

Virtual World  Recent Updates & Releases

  • Sony PS3 Version/Port-out of Second Life – Unfortunately, it is been delayed and hasn’t shipped yet but is coming soon. When it arrives it will be instantly available on every PS3 device
  • Microsoft XBOX 360 Live Re-Launch – Wii like avatars are being added that can do things like view other user’s achievements

Virtual Worlds Are NOT Good At:

  • Allowing users that just want to take a quick dip in / dip out experience
  • Providing a good user interface (UI)
  • Working with other applications

So here is where we can turn the conversation to Web3D.  Using 3D technology is great for driving interaction and engagement.  Many companies across a whole host of industries are weaving in Web3D into their products and web sites.  Below are a few choice examples.

These Examples Can Be Grouped Into Three Main Buckets:

  • Improved Navigation – media libraires, GPS, smartphones, TVs
  • Object Manipulation – shopping, kitchen planning
  • Personal Representation – avatars, 3D chatting

What Drives 3D Beyond Niche Devices Implementations?

  • New user interfaces – such as touch screens
  • Virtual object / environment specifications and exchange standards are starting to evolve and settle
  • 3D graphic chipsets are becoming widely available in both PC and other devices

3D Provides A More Natural Interface

  • Clicking on text and flat images is not natural
  • 3D tools can be mixed and matched with traditional web, desktop and device tools

What’s Holding Back Consumer Focused Web3D Applications?

  • “it’s just a game” perception
  • High level of consumer engagement needed to get consumers to starting experimenting
  • The Second Life backlash
  • The creation tools for business and consumers are still complex and/or too limited
  • The “me-too” adoption factor isn’t good enough for business impact / ROI
  • There are requirements for plug-ins, downloads and an up-to-date browser (20% – 30% of users’ bail the moment they are prompted to install anything)
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Free is the name of the game in today's marketing teams

Free is the name of the game in today's marketing budget

The economy is in the crapper. Budgets are tight.  We all get this news cast at us every day within the retail world.  So now is the time to make the most of internal and essentially free marketing tools that nearly everyone has at their disposal to drive additional in-store traffic and sales.  Often times these resources go overlooked and are vastly untapped due the common, low-tech nature of many of them.   That however is the beauty of many of them.  The price is right (free), the complexity is low (quick implementation) and there is still potential (as many of these ‘stones’ have not yet been turned over).

Below is an examination of a few techniques that I have personally witness retailers using over the last 4+ years that are designed to drive consumes cross-channel.

1. Web – To – Store

a.       Search - Every single site has a keyword search box.  However most sites only search items available online and ignore those items on sale OR for sale in the store.  By simply integrating these data sets and providing a holistic view to search across all channels,.  ShopKo for example does a great job of this on their dot com site where store based on-sale items are included in the search and browse results.

b.      Email - Who doesn’t have a million plus house email list these days?  It’s a well proven method of driving on-line sales.  Consider however how email could easily be made to serve an additional master – the store.  By simply including in-store promotional content within.  Retailers such as JCP, OSH, Staples and others faithful use email to promote and drive people in-store.  Just sign-up for their newsletters and you’ll get the picture immediately.

c.       Store Locators – OK.  This one is becoming a personal ‘soap box’ for me.  It is however probably the most powerful method defined here.  Online store locator visits = in store visits.  It is the closest, most well established measurement proxy for how to track the effectiveness of the web driving in-store sales.  As such, by including in-store messaging as to give an incentive for the user looking at the online store locator to actual take action and drive to a local store (via what is happening in store, what’s on sale in store, etc).  Here is another good example of how this key asset can be best used.

2. Print – To – Web

a.       Inserts / Circulars / Flyers / Catalogs – Print ads are not cheap to produce or distribute. Help keep print costs in check and add additional users by messaging that the same in-store promotional content is available online.

Here is the front cover of a recent JCP ad that has messaging that is cross promoting the online weekly ad site

Here is the front cover of a recent JCP ad that has messaging that is cross promoting the online weekly ad site

b.      Direct Mail – Same story as circulars above. Cross-promotional messaging is the key here.

c.       Bill Inserts – Another variation for those retailers that run their own private label credit cards.  This customer touch point is one more area that cross-promotion can naturally occur.

d.      Newspaper Insertion Add-Ons – These come in many forms.  Yellow sticky notes on the outside of the shrink rack bags that hold all the FSIs / inserts.  Other actually branding the circular bag itself.

Highly branded shrink wrap bag that all the circular ads got stuffed into

Highly branded shrink wrap bag that all the circular ads got stuffed into

Special call out on the front page of the newspaper drawing attention to in-store deals

Special call out on the front page of the newspaper drawing attention to in-store deals

3. Store – To – Web

a.       Cash Register / Point of Sale (POS) Receipts – This is a technique that I first noticed at my local Target store.  I just checked out and I looked down to notice that on the bottom of my receipt was a message that stated “No Newspaper? No Problem.  The Target Weekly Ad Is Online At http://weeklyad.target.com“  Simple, useful information, high exposure and cost effective.

b.      In-Store Signage / Bulletin Boards- Your local stores are a huge marketing machine.  Making sure that all of the places where informational channel specific or cross-channel signage is displayed have the proper messaging in place to make shoppers aware of all the options, communication mediums/tools and channels you offer.  Wal-Mart always has this huge glassed-in bulletin board by customer service that has the weekly ad pinned up.  I see consumers actually getting out scrap paper and making notes of which items are of interest, the prices, etc.  This is exactly the type of opportunity to drive these information requests to a better channel.  Enter mobile site, kiosk standing right there with the ability to print, etc.  Basically anything has to be better than making people do their store shopping research through a piece of glass.

c.       Registries / In-Store Kiosks – Bringing the internet inside of a store is a brilliant idea, as it opens up a whole hoard of information to store shoppers.  As more and more kiosks get deployed (Borders has made a big investment in this area), these store and web experiences get really blurred quickly.  This is the exact reason that their needs to be good bi-directional messaging and promotion across both the online and in store channel.  Registries are also another great example of how in store and online are all mixed up as users add items in store, edit the registry list on line and friends and family consume it back in store.  Talk about a system that is ripe for cross-channel promotion.

d.      Ad Racks – Walgreens is the retailer that comes to mind here.  Every time I go in store, the first thing that I literally run into is a large chrome wire rack that has a stack of paper circular ads stuffed in it.  However more times than not, the rack is empty.  What if however there was a sign on this rack that said, “Go online to our mobile WAP site to find out the deals in our local store at http://m.walgreens.com” It would solve the out-of-stock issue, be ‘greener’, always up-to-date and drive awareness of a WAP site.

e.      Check-Out Point Of Sale (POS) Terminal Screens – Whole Foods has really fancy, large LCD monitors that you are suppose to watch when you check out.  There are of course the details of what you are buying but in addition there are tons of display ads and messaging that wrap around the transaction area of the screen.  Again I see an opportunity here to drive cross-channel messaging and behavior by promoting that consumers can figure out what is on sale in that specific local store BEFORE they leave their house by going online to the weekly ad.

Whole Foods POS screen that has almost half the screen real estate being used to promote products in store

Whole Foods POS screen that has almost half the screen real estate being used to promote products in store

4. Mobile – To – Web

a.       SMS Text Alerts / Reminders – Urban Outfitters has a pretty simple and cool mobile messaging effort that send periodic updates to a house file of mobile numbers that their customers have entrusted the retailer with.  How about including in the bottom of each message a simple & short URL (like a www.tinyurl.com redirect) that links back to a mobile compliant site that has in-store content, events and promotions?  That would be a perfect cross-channel promotional opportunity.

5. Phone – To – Web

a.       Call Center: Recorded Messages - How many times have I been on hold hearing the same endless loop of music and messages?  Too many to recount, but each time I get lost in phone tree hell, I always think about what a lost opportunity to ‘talk’ to a customer.  The retailer has a very captive audience that it can easily expose to any ideas or messages it wants.  Smart sellers should take advantage of this and provide teaser content to help build future demand for a future web or store visit.  Tell the users what is on sale, for sale or being promoted.  Keep fueling the demand fire.

b.      Call Center: Catalog / Circular Requests – Mailing a physical circular ad or catalog to a customer is expensive and takes forever.  Some cost conscience retailers are instead offering to email a virtual copy of the ad or catalog to the customer.  This is a Win-Win.  Cheaper for the retailer and faster delivery for the customer.

Am I missing other promotional methods? Have experience using any of these you would like to share? Are even better, results? Leave a comment and let’s discuss.

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